Top Ten Forecasts for Lithium Battery Industry of Two Wheeled Vehicles in 2021

abstract

GGII expects that the host market of to C client will really drive the outbreak of the lithium battery market of two wheeled vehicles due to the tightening of local supervision and the arrival of vehicle replacement tide.

In 2020, the vigorous development of China's shared motorcycles has driven the rapid growth of China's lithium electric scooters. According to the statistics of the lithium Institute of advanced industry research (GGII), the total output of lithium electric scooters in 2020 is about 10.25 million, and the overall penetration rate of lithium electric cars is 27%.

GGII believes that there are policy risks, long periodicity and other problems in shared motorcycles, and there is a lack of stable growth factors. The main market and important market of lithium electric two wheeled vehicles are still the host market of to C client, and its current penetration rate is 16.2%.

According to the preliminary survey data of GGII, driven by the growth of downstream demand, the shipment of lithium batteries for electric two wheeled vehicles in China was about 10gwh in 2020, with a year-on-year increase of 76.4%.

The main reasons for the rapid growth are: 1) the explosion of demand in the sharing market and power exchange market; 2) Model 482x gradually replaces model 4812 as the mainstream battery pack, increasing the capacity of a single battery pack.

GGII made ten predictions for the lithium battery industry of two wheeled vehicles in 2021 by combing the lithium battery industry of two wheeled vehicles and combining the survey data and information:

1. In 2020, driven by the market of sharing motorcycles and changing electricity, the lithium battery market of two wheeled vehicles will grow rapidly. GGII expects that the host market of to C client will really drive the outbreak of the lithium battery market of two wheeled vehicles due to the tightening of local supervision and the arrival of vehicle replacement tide, and the real penetration rate of lithium two wheeled vehicles will increase rapidly. It is expected that the penetration rate will reach 23% in 2021.

2. From a national perspective, there are obvious regional characteristics in the development of shared motorcycles. Among them, the development heat and vitality of the third, fourth and fifth tier cities are much higher than those of the first tier cities. There are some problems in the sharing market, such as policy risks and long periodicity, and lack of stable growth factors. GGII expects that local policies will be gradually clarified and improved in 2021, and the demand for lithium batteries in the sharing market will slow down.

3. In 2020, the manganese lithium battery represented by Xingheng will still play a dominant role in the market due to its cost advantage. At the same time, the price competition is extremely fierce. The single model 4820 is up to 30% lower than that in 2019. It is expected that more and more lithium battery enterprises will participate in price war competition in 2021. Although it will bring high growth after cost dividend in the short term, the safety problems caused by rough manufacturing will gradually become prominent.

4. Driven by the sharing market and power exchange market in 2020, iron lithium batteries account for more than ternary batteries in the sharing market. The increment of the host market in 2021 makes up for the decline of the sharing market. The growth of iron lithium and ternary batteries depends on the lithium electrification degree of high-end models in the host market. GGII believes that manganese batteries will still be the mainstream in 2021, but in medium and high-end products such as electric light motorcycle and electric motorcycle, Lithium iron and ternary batteries will continue to compete.

5. From 2019 to 2020, lithium battery enterprises have entered the two wheeled vehicle market. However, with the obstruction of product prices and old two wheeled vehicle batteries, some enterprises are blocked and their promotion is unfavorable. The high gross profit of overseas market (E-bike) and the growth of market space bring direction to many new enterprises. It is expected that the overseas market will become the market pursued by many enterprises in 2021.

6. In 2020, two wheeled vehicle lithium battery enterprises boliwei and Tianneng energy have successfully held the meeting. In 2021, under the condition of strong demand, it is expected that more two wheeled vehicle lithium battery enterprises will apply for listing or raise funds in the primary market. To expand production capacity and enhance enterprise competitiveness.

7. In 2021, the channel market will become a new breakthrough for the lithium battery enterprises of two wheeled vehicles. At the same time, the lithium battery enterprises will strengthen the construction of battery after-sales and service outlets, and the brand publicity of to C end will also be taken as a key measure.

8. With the development and breakthrough of lithium battery technology and the gradual maturity of the power exchange market, the space of power exchange service at end C will be gradually opened. The smooth promotion of power exchange service at end B in 2021 will extend the power exchange service to end C.

9. No matter in the host market or the battery replacement market, the standardization of lithium battery two wheeled vehicles is very important. With the promotion of relevant policies and enterprises in the whole industry, the standardization process of lithium battery two wheeled vehicles is expected to be completed in 2021, and the standardization of lithium battery modules will also tend to be unified.

10. For a long time, overseas E-bike lithium batteries are mainly batteries from Japan and South Korea, and their prices are 50% 80% higher than those in China. After long-term testing and certification by overseas terminal enterprises, China's lithium battery cells will be accelerated into the supply chain. At the same time, China's lithium battery industry chain is complete, the cost advantage is reflected, and its proportion in overseas will continue to increase.

Top Ten Forecasts for Lithium Battery Industry of Two Wheeled Vehicles in 2021 1

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